Healthy LCD Industry: Look at Areal Shipments
December 21st, 2007by Jin Kim, Director, TFT LCD Market Research
DisplaySearch’s Monthly TFT LCD Shipment Database revealed that large-area TFT LCD panel shipments in November were down 2% M/M to almost 5.7 million m2. However, that number represents a 61% Y/Y growth from shipments of just over of 3.5 million m2 in November 2006.
Let’s have a closer look at what happened in November and uncover where the M/M drop in areal shipments came from. Notebook PC panel areal shipments decreased 1% M/M and increased 39% Y/Y to 708K m2 in November. After posting six consecutive months of M/M growth, areal shipments for notebook PC panels resulted in a slight M/M decline due to seasonality. Although shipments grew Y/Y, growth is far less than overall large-area areal shipments. Notebook PC LCD panel areal shipments are expected to grow almost 29% Y/Y and hit more than 7.2M m2 in 2007. Although notebook PC panel shipments had some contribution to large-area areal shipment decline in November, the portion of areal shipments to large-area areal shipments is small, just over 12%. Let’s look at LCD monitor panel shipments next.
Areal shipments of LCD monitor panels declined 7% M/M to 1.7M m2 in November. LCD monitor areal shipments were almost 30% of large-area areal shipments in November. We all know the first half of every calendar year poses a great challenge for the IT- and CE-related companies due to weak seasonal demand. We can expect the same challenge in 1H’08. All major suppliers of LCD monitor panels experienced a decline in November except for HannStar and Sharp. AU Optronics (AUO) posted a decline of 5% M/M while LG.Philips LCD (LPL) and Samsung both experienced 3% M/M drops. AUO, LPL and Samsung are the top three suppliers of LCD monitor panels and comprised over 51% share of LCD monitor panel areal shipments in November. To dig a little further, the most popular sizes, 17” and 19” LCD monitor panels, declined in areal shipments in November, by 10% and 15% M/M, respectively. One explanation might be that as more consumers purchase notebook PCs in lieu of desktop PCs, the relative demand for LCD monitors is decreasing. This holds true for the majority of consumers, but knowledge workers are the exception as are executives who require ultra-portable notebook PCs when traveling in addition to large LCD monitors, in some cases more than one, connected to docking stations on their desks. Attaching multiple LCD monitors to a PC, whether notebook or desktop, is expected to get much easier as wireless and USB-based connectivity become more mainstream. Having an additional monitor to my notebook PC improves my productivity significantly on a daily basis and I didn’t feel the enhanced productivity before I actually tried several years ago. Without two displays, I feel I simply can’t work! New technologies to add more LCD real estate should bode well for LCD monitor panel shipments in the near future.
Next up is LCD TV. There was no M/M growth in November, but areal shipments grew 94% Y/Y to almost 3.2M m2! LCD TV panel areal shipments made up more than 56% of large-area areal shipments in November. This is in line with the largest LCD manufacturers building next-generation LCD fabs that are focused on producing LCD panels for LCD TV applications. LPL, Samsung and Sharp posted M/M declines but AUO’s areal shipments increased 6% M/M and Chi Mei Optoelectronics (CMO) posted a 2% M/M increase. The top five suppliers of LCD TV panels made up almost 94% of areal shipments in November showing how difficult it is for smaller players to compete. Not only do you need financial capital and technology, a close tie with major CE brands such as LG Electronics, Sony, Sharp, Philips, Samsung, etc. is a must. LCD TV panel areal shipments are expected to grow a staggering 87% Y/Y in 2007 to over 26M m2.
Although November results were somewhat negative, they were not surprising, and continued Y/Y growth in areal shipments of LCD panels show that demand is strong. With the increasing acceptance of notebook PCs, new technologies to add multiple LCD monitors and the general popularity of LCD TVs growing, the future looks hopeful for LCD manufacturers and their suppliers.
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