2009: The Year of Gen 6?

By David Hsieh, Vice President of the Greater China Market

A generation is a basic measurement in the TFT LCD industry. The generation represents the size of the glass substrate and determines the number of panels that can be efficiently produced from each substrate. From the evolution of the Gen 1 to Gen 10, the capital investment required has steadily increased, as the sizes increased and the technology has become increasingly sophisticated.

Over the past few years, some generations (substrate sizes) have become dominant. Most of the mainstream, high-volume products are made on fabs of that generation, and most of the TFT LCD suppliers have one or more fab of that generation.

Gen 5, which began in 2002, is an example. This generation has been able to produce panels for mainstream applications as they transitioned from notebook to LCD monitor. Gen 5 is in a sense a watershed: TFT LCD makers that did not build Gen 5 (including several Japanese suppliers that focused on small/medium panels) did not expand past that point. All of those that entered the industry after 2002 (such as Chinese panel makers) started with Gen 5. The products made on Gen 5 fabs, such as 17” and 19” monitor panels, rapidly become the mainstream TFT LCD products. Almost everybody in the panel game has a Gen 5.

Now, the bar has shifted. Many believe that Gen 6 will take the crown in 2009. The arguments include the following:

• Gen 6 was originally designed for 26”, 32” and 37” TV panels. Currently most 32” panels are made on Gen 6 lines, and 32” accounts for over 30% of the total LCD TV market.
• Although Gen 6 is efficient for 26”, 32” and 37” production, as LCD monitor panels are gradually shifting to 16:9 aspect ratio, the efficiency of monitor panel production is improving.
• Monitor panels (either 16:10 wide or square) have been made mostly on Gen 5 lines, but as the notebook market is growing and consumes more capacity, and as the glass thickness issue has been overcome, increasing Gen 5 capacity has been shifting to notebook panel production. Even recent entrants such as Chinese makers are planning to transform their Gen 5 business from monitor to notebook panel production.
• 16:9 aspect ratio will grow fast from 2009 on, so it is becoming clear that Gen 6 will soon be the most dominant fab size.
• Currently, Sharp, LG Display, AUO, CMO, IPS-Alpha and CPT are owners of Gen 6 lines. Meanwhile, there are three new Gen 6 projects in China (SVA, BOE, and IRICO), one new project in Taiwan (Innolux), and one new project in India (Videocon). Gen 6 is spreading faster than other generations.

The following table shows the efficiency with which panels can be produced (meaning the percentage of glass utilized) on a Gen 6 line, according to a Gen 6 owner.

Gen 6 glass substrate size: 1500 × 1850 mm