By Calvin Hsieh, Research Director
In my opinion, the events in 2008 that will have the most impact for the evolution of Flat Panel Display TVs next year are Apple TV, Google Phone and Intel Canmore. Surprising? In fact, these seem to have nothing to do with LCD or PDP TV. It would probably seem more reasonable if I said DVB-T2, frame rate conversion or even CMMB for China.
The reasons that I selected these three items are not because these companies are already dominant in certain fields or because their new products are so promising. I would simply like to look for something meaningful through these products. When analyzing the numbers of any TV forecast, we can find ASP erosion, slowing growth, fierce market share following the 80/20 rule, and winners “taking all.” All the phenomena are telling us the FPD TV market has become mature and indeed has reached a ceiling or plateau effect. Looking forward to ways to create new growth, we need to make consumers enthusiastic again and inspire them to purchase a new FPD TV. And if they are truly passionate, they will be encouraged to spend money. Otherwise, it might be difficult to have realistic expectations for a brilliant FPD TV future.
With any mature fast-moving consumer product, there are ways to promote new models to grab market share from others. For example, you can highlight effective ingredients in your shampoo if it works better than the competition and can address consumer needs. Or, if your product is actually nothing special for that particular function, you should at least touch their hearts and appeal to emotions through advertisements, appearance, a good story or even attractive packaging. This means, if you cannot create real magic, then you had better create a distinct feeling.
LCD monitors are facing this mature situation. We have waited for so long, but still do not see any new amazing specifications to stimulate the imagination, except screen size, ratio and signal port. A lack of future possibilities and a shortage of imagination typically means a product has reached an end point, facing negative growth.
Let’s take mobile phones as an example. Mobile phones have gone far beyond their original and essential function: voice phone calls. Mobile phones integrate cameras, MP3 players, PDAs, MID and even GPS into a single device. Guess what happened? Only entry and high-end models survive in the digital camera market as well as cameras with more functions—like MEMS or optical enhancements—to create some differentiation that’s not popular in mobile-phone camera units. Moreover, the PDA has become simply a “feature” in a mobile phone, and no longer a stand-alone product. Mobile phones have endured due to the force of imagination and these products have enjoyed sharp growth with continuously evolving specifications.
In fact, a mobile phone without camera, MP3, PDA and GPS features is still accepted as a mobile phone and serves the purpose of communication as well. These features are not absolutely necessary, but when the electronic H/W and S/W solutions are available and affordable, and the environment and consumers’ needs are mature, this kind of technical evolution and integration will bring about new applications and encourage consumers to spend money again. If it wasn’t for the imagination of designers and the possibility to create new growth and new markets, we would have just stayed at 2G without stepping into HSDPA or even LTE. Stay tuned over the next two days for full details on this evolving “convergence” story.
