Savings Ratios Give A Clue To Market Robustness
November 14th, 2008By Paul Gray, Director, European TV Research
While doing some background work on forecasting for the next few months, I started examining any correlation between the TV market and savings. Intuitively there is some kind of a link.
Taking the penetration of TV into homes appeared to me to consider longer-term effects and iron out shorter-term pricing and market disruptions, for example from the transition to flat panel TV. It’s data that is not so easy to find, and there is always debate about whether a set in a guest bedroom should be counted if it’s only used for a few hours per year.
I was absolutely stunned when I plotted it, and felt I had to share:
Sources: EuroStat, OECD, Pressreference.com
The correlations appear almost too good to be true! But it does perhaps give a peek into where demand can be expected to be most robust. Clearly Germany and Italy have few sets. If the set fails, the choice is to replace it or read a book instead.
By comparison, the US and UK have enjoyed an Anglo-Saxon credit binge and much of the market is supported by second sets. When times get tough, these will not be replaced, or the impulsive demand for another set will easily be extinguished by tight household budgets. These markets look most vulnerable, and indeed have so many sets in the home that in really tight times a bedroom set could be called into front-line duty if the main set fails.
One Response to “Savings Ratios Give A Clue To Market Robustness”
By Complete Savings on Dec 23, 2008 | Reply
the statistics notwithstanding, i wonder if my family would move to the smaller bedroom television from the huge one in the living area.