We are just days away from Black Friday madness and, as was the case in recent years, nearly all of the printed ad proofs have been leaked, revealing some fairly aggressive promotions. While the hot “ticket-required” items – the Black Friday grail only available to Thursday night campers (or those who pay overnight speculators for tickets) – are beginning to be revealed by Best Buy today, the full measure of the bargains won’t be known until Friday morning. Still, at this point we are seeing 32” LCD TV as low as $380 and $450-$500 for first tier brands, 42” 1080p LCD TV as low as $598, 46” first tier 1080p LCD as low as $900, and 52” LCD for $1300 at Best Buy available now. First-tier 42” 720P plasma will start at $700 (house brands at $600) and 50” 720P first-tier plasmas as low as $798.
What is obvious is that first-tier brands are not above the fray this season, with retailers such as Best Buy, Circuit City, Sears, and others featuring Sony’s workhorse fighter models, along with Black Friday-specific models from Panasonic and, especially, Samsung. Sharp, a prime ticket last year, particularly at Sears, also has hot SKUs in the pre-dawn hunt. These first-tier brands will compete beside new lows in lower-tier and house-brand models in the highly competitive 32” LCD segment this season, making the issue of flat panel profitability a hot topic of discussion for some time. However, following the economic downturn of recent months, the lay of the land this Friday grew more unclear. While promotional prices appear to be compelling, will people turn out as in recent years? Will more people gravitate toward smaller, less extravagant screen sizes?
Before the recent drama on Wall Street, American consumers, even in the face of shaky economic indicators, continued to be driven by cheap credit, feeling optimistic, if not impervious. Friday morning will be the first real indicator of just how much they are feeling the heat. Will the tents be lined up strong in front of the main players’ doors? Probably. The pertinent questions are:
- How strong will Black Friday business be throughout the day?
- Will the buying fever take hold and sustain itself through December?
- Will there be enough business to go around for Circuit City to see 2009?
One hopes that the many liquidating Circuit locations will be clearly bannered as not participating in Black Friday promotions, avoiding disappointed campers at dawn.
There are some reasons for optimism. Pre-Black Friday events have generated some excitement, particularly a recent Sears Sunday After-Hours sale, a repeat of a successful event last year in which Black Friday-level pricing was offered. Still, NPD’s survey of more than 800 consumers found that those surveyed are intending to compromise and opt for less expensive models, less expensive brands or put off the decision to purchase a TV entirely until they can get what they want without compromise – a choice that would have the most profound effect on the final numbers. So are these Black Friday prices enough to lure shoppers that might be in the latter category?
We will know at the end of the weekend. Look for our annual special expanded edition of the TV Flash with detailed analysis of Black Friday circulars for our usual six surveyed retailers and also expanded coverage of a complete representative market encompassing some 18 retailer visits with store traffic photos and anecdotes from our dawn patrol. The Black Friday survey will feature all TV model promotional listings and analysis comparing this Black Friday weekend to the past three years.
Then, for a full comprehensive assessment of the Black Friday weekend, complete with sell-through, sell-in, channel inventory, product inventory and panel inventory results for all major display applications including TVs, notebook PCs and DVD players, register for our December 9th DisplaySearch NPD Black Friday Results and 2009 Outlook Webinar.
