Black Friday, Good News?

I had my doubts on Thanksgiving night when a traditional evening retailer drive-by revealed only a small group of bundled up shoppers seated at the doorway at two Circuit City locations. After all, these were among the chosen survivors and not the totally dark and deserted liquidating locations. However, a turn of the corner revealed the familiar line of tents across the front and around the side of a Best Buy and then a massive line at Target and Frys. By  4 am Circuit City had grown a crowd equal to Best Buy and it was clear that the people had indeed come to Black Friday and holiday shopping. Will they stay?

After the smoke cleared on Sunday evening, a big chain retail executive, while reporting being “overall pretty happy” with the Black Friday weekend response, followed up with the worry on the minds of many, that “shoppers now might disappear” until right before the holidays. Numerous retailers reported increases, some of them dramatic. Estimates overall have hovered around a small single digit sales increase over 2007, though fears that reduced profits from increased discounting dilute the value of that gain. As many retailers got a head start last Thursday with Black Friday prices available online early, initial reports of Cyber Monday numbers point to a healthy jump of online spending. As all of this gets sorted out there is no question that would-be shoppers will be influenced by the media’s assessment. It seemed to me as if local media here in Atlanta were “locked and loaded” and ready to report low Black Friday turnout, shifting slowly as the crowds came. As news outlets feed on our economic crisis, good news can be hard to construe through those channels. The holiday sounds and atmosphere are in the air as usual but how much will the media banter drown it out in the home stretch?

For those who slept through all of the madness, a whirlwind tour of the Thursday night / Friday morning scene at fifteen retailers is available in the current DisplaySearch TV Flash, complete with photos, tables detailing all TV promotions and multiple analysis comparing the day to the past four Black Fridays. You also want to take a look at the Black Friday view from our colleagues at NPD.

Then, for a full comprehensive assessment of Black Friday weekend complete with the sell-through, sell-in, channel inventory, product inventory and panel inventory results for all major display applications including TVs, notebook PCs and DVD players, register for our December 9  DisplaySearch NPD Black Friday Results & 2009 Outlook Webinar.