How Much is 3D Worth?

By Paul Gray – Director, European TV Research, DisplaySearch

I got thinking during one of the 3D presentations today about whether 3D would be the savior of TV as we know it.

We published the following graph on TV market value development last quarter:

Source: Q2′09 Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report

It would be an interesting thought experiment to evaluate what kind of TV price uplift would be necessary to return the industry to the glory days of 2008. Taking the developed markets of Japan, North America and Western Europe, there is a gap of $15 billion per year to make up distributed over about 90 million sets shipped. So that means that a premium of $150 is necessary. To hold value at 2009 levels needs approximately $50.

I think the $50 is relatively easy to find, provided that styling continues to evolve (and huge steps have been made in the past year) and internet connectivity can be made to work. Add in LED backlighting, with even a payback from the $50 investment as electricity savings, and it should be OK.

The $150 looks like a bigger challenge. I’m still not sure where the rest comes from, and I’m not convinced yet that 3D will support a $150 premium, at least not in the mass market.