We recently pointed out that 2013 would be the year in which smaller tablet PC shipments (especially 7” and 8”) would surpass larger tablet PC shipments (such as 9.7” and 10.1”). Tablet PCs are starting to overlap with larger smart phones, as well as with ultra-slim notebook PCs.
Our latest forecast for the tablet PC market in the Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report is for 67% Y/Y growth – from 153.6M in 2012 to 256.5M in 2013. Within this growing market, the share held by the top 12 brands, including Apple, HP, Acer, Dell, Lenovo, ASUS, Samsung, Toshiba, Sony, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, is falling because the whitebox market, especially in China, is growing faster. We estimate that the top brands, which shipped a combined 104.2M units in 2012, have reduced their 2013 shipment plans from 172M forecast in April to 167M forecast in June.
Apple’s iPad series accounted for 67M units in 2012 and remains the market leader, but is also the leading example of this trend. We estimate that Apple originally planned to ship 88M iPads in 2013, has reduced its target to 74M, including 31M iPads and 43M iPad minis.
We estimate that Samsung’s total tablet PC and phablet business plan is nearly 50M units in 2013, a big jump from 15.6M in 2012. Samsung plans include 39.5M tablet PCs, and 10M Galaxy Mega series (5.8” and 6.3”; while Samsung defines these as phablets, we classify them as smart phones).
Other tablet PC brands expect to grow their business in 2013. Among them, Lenovo, Microsoft, HP, and Acer are the most aggressive. Lenovo has two product lines for its tablet PC – X86 and ARM series. In 2013, Lenovo is planning for 3M X86 and 8M ARM.