One downside of these technologies is that they can have higher power consumption. Since, traditionally, desktop monitors are driven off of AC power and have power “bricks” or built-in power supplies, the issue of power-draw has been less relevant for desktop displays than for battery operated mobile PC displays. Recent green initiatives have tried to shed light on the power consumption for desktop displays, and the use of LED backlights has helped reduce power draw, but lower power consumption is hardly a selling proposition. 

A tangible benefit of lower power monitors, however, is the ability to “cut one cord” of a desktop display or future cloud monitor. Current monitors and all-in-one PCs require at least a video cable, a power cable (and/or power brick), and an Ethernet connection. LCD monitor players have offered several solutions to cut at least one of these cables:

• Power from USB 3.0
• Power from DisplayPort
• Power from Ethernet (still requires a separate video connection)

Asus showed a USB-powered monitor at Taipei COMPUTEX, but its brightness was only 200 nits (stated power draw was 6.5W). Many LCD monitor panel roadmaps show low power monitor panels allowing for an 8W total solution, but these are mostly for low brightness (200-250 nits) TN panels from Taiwanese or Chinese panel makers that might not have as much access to advanced technologies like IPS/PLS. 

So the near-term desire to push IPS/PLS technologies to the mainstream of desktop computing could have a side effect of hindering other monitor advancements, such as power over Ethernet, that are needed for the development of consumer cloud monitors.

The commercial AV market has historically been dominated by projection technologies for very large venues. Direct-view LED boards have also had a long presence in outdoor venues. However, TFT LCDs are now becoming a key technology for large venues, starting with indoor digital signage, including applications such as quick-service restaurants, flight information displays, digital advertising, and way-finding.

One question that always arises is: how are commercial-grade TFT LCDs different than those used in TVs? To address this, brands and panel makers with a B2B focus have tried to specify how the panels and the finished sets are different from TV displays. A key aspect is reliability: the installer community needs to be convinced that TFT LCD technology can operate 24/7 in commercial settings.

Panel makers have updated their roadmaps to call out Digital Information Displays (DID), Public Displays (PD), or Public Information Display (PID) vs. TV panels so that brands and OEMs can see the differences. At the set level, other terms have arisen to define non-display features, such as cabled remote control (via RS232), thin, uniform bezels, or other industrial design features. Many brands now use the acronym LF or LFD for Large-Format Display. With companies like Samsung making both panels and finished sets (some of which use professional grade panels and some of which do not), it is not uncommon to hear about a new “LED LCD LFD using a DID panel.” This is a mouthful even for an industry full of acronyms, but these differentiators are necessary to communicate performance differences.

Commercial displays have been using narrow bezels, and now are emphasizing “super” or “ultra” narrow bezels, as a way to position TFT LCDs in the video wall market, where very small gaps between displays are required. Rear-projection video wall vendors use the term “mullion” for the gap between display elements, but TFT LCD vendors tend to use “bezel.” But now TVs have narrow bezels, again making it harder to differentiate commercial grade displays.

In response, another specification is receiving more attention in the product lines of panel makers focusing on the commercial space: brightness. Enhancements in backlighting (improved CCFL efficiency, edge-lit LEDs, back-lit LEDs) are allowing for 700 to 1,500 nit brightness to be achieved in 55-60” TFT LCDs, enabling differentiation from consumer grade products.

High brightness is not just a marketing differentiator; it allows TFT LCDs to be effective in out-of-home environments, where installers are not in control of ambient light (think of shopping malls or airports which can be flooded with sunlight). While the consumer market is always open to specifications wars, tradeoffs between set thickness, cost, and brightness limit the adoption of high brightness, so it is likely to be the province of commercial-grade displays.

DisplaySearch is now tracking trends in brightness in our Quarterly FPD Public Display Shipment and Forecast Report

According to PDP panel module shipment data in the Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, PDP module shipments had 42% and 49% Y/Y growth in Q1’10 and Q2’10, respectively. Samsung SDI and LGE are squeezing more from their capacity, and COC is expected to ship its first 42” PDP modules from its own line from Q3’10. Of course Panasonic always leads PDP module volume, for both TVs and public displays.

During its Q2’10 investors meeting, Samsung SDI announced that it expects PDP module shipments to reach 18.2 million in 2010. DisplaySearch estimated PDP module shipments of 14.8 million in 2009, so SDI’s forecast would mean 27% Y/Y growth. The rapid growth in demand is supported by figures from The NPD Group’s US retail weekly tracking service, which shows year-to-date PDP TV sales in July more than 70% higher than the same period in 2009, compared to flat sales for LCD TV.

Why is PDP growing so rapidly? And is the growth sustainable, or just temporary? Some believe that 3D brings new opportunities specifically to PDP as it seems to have some distinct advantages, rebalancing the relative advantages of the two technologies. However, 3D TV is not yet a major driver for PDP module shipments. For example, LGE just launched its first 3D PDP TV this week, but its PDP TV shipments have increased significantly from the first quarter of this year. It is possible that there will be an impact in 2H’10.

Rather, we can identify four key elements of PDP’s remarkable growth against LCD in the TV market:

• Inflated LED-backlit LCD panel pricing—A limited supply of LEDs has kept LED-backlit panel pricing from falling, meaning that LCD TV retail prices have not fallen as quickly as last year, even during promotion periods, for example China’s golden weeks and the World Cup.
• LED supply and costs—The LCD industry may have scored an ‘own goal’ by launching LED-backlit sets before the supply chain was prepared. CCFL has been devalued by the new technology, and at the same time LED sets have been perceived by many consumers as too pricey.
• Similar design to LED-backlit LCD TV—To most consumers, it’s not easy to differentiate between LCD and PDP TV, and with the remaining proponents of PDP also in the LCD business, any negative image of PDP TV has substantially disappeared.
• Feature sensitivity—LED-backlit LCD TV sets are equipped with more valuable features, but large CCFL LCD TVs do not have as strong a value proposition. Consumers looking for value find a large (42” or 50”) PDP TV with similar features to smaller LCD TVs.

What if LED-backlit LCD TV prices fall to what we think is in line with consumers’ expectations? Would PDP TV be able to compete? It will be very difficult. Of course the LED supply shortage may prevent a sharp drop in LED-backlit LCD TV street prices by the end of this year, but panel prices will likely begin falling this month. When such cuts are reflected in retail set prices, we will have a real test of the durability of the PDP TV sales surge.

Experiences with 3D TV over the past week indicate some real progress and some room for improvement.

Last week DisplaySearch visited a Best Buy in San Diego to view a World Cup match in 3D, and to assess the overall level of 3D TV demonstration at retail in these early days of the rollout. Even though both Panasonic and Samsung have 3D TVs in the market, it was clear who was paying for premium placement. This particular Best Buy location had two Samsung 3D TV demonstrations, both with LED-backlight LCD TVs. One demo was showing the ability to up-convert 2D high-definition broadcasts to simulated 3D in real time, while the other was a dedicated theater type environment with both DirecTV and Blu-ray demos.

The 3D up-conversion demo was a little disappointing, and although it may have been related to the content (ESPN Sportscenter). Images had a very ‘storyboard’ like effect with distinct layers of depth and a notable range of artifacts, including some ghosting. One of the two pairs of glasses was not working (dead battery), but the other worked fine, even if it didn’t fit comfortably over prescription glasses.

Figure 1: Samsung 2D-3D TV Demo at Best Buy in San Diego

The other demo featured a 55” 8000 series LED-backlight LCD TV from Samsung connected to a DirecTV DVR system showing a live feed from the World Cup. The games are being captured using Sony 3D cameras, and the 3D effect was much more impressive than the up-conversion demo. Because of the long distance separating the camera from the field, the 3D effect was rather subtle, but when the field of view includes nearby grandstands or the shot moved to field level, the 3D was fantastic. The setup overall worked pretty well, although it seemed the DirecTV transmission of the broadcast had some artifacts in signal manifest as odd lines spanning the picture. There was a Samsung rep on hand that did a good job of answering questions, which was helpful, and the Best Buy staff seemed up to speed.

There were some glitches, however,. Point-of-purchase materials were interfering with the IR emitter on the TVs and not allowing the glasses to sync, but this was corrected quickly. Also the cheaper Samsung 3D glasses use watch batteries that must be replaced after 30-40 hours of use, which meant Best Buy staff had to be vigilant about checking the glasses and making sure they were turned off between uses. The other Samsung glasses used USB rechargeable batteries which were tethered to the glasses and allowed for active viewing even when plugged in—a nice touch should the batteries die during a movie.

Overall, the demos were good, if not perfect yet. But the same could be said of the early days of the HDTV transition.

DisplaySearch followed up this visit by participating in a roundtable and demonstration hosted by Sony in San Francisco. Sony showed live ESPN broadcast of the World Cup on two XBR-52LX900 sets. As with the Best Buy demo, the close-up shots were outstanding, while full-field views showed less benefit. Perhaps the most impressive thing was watching a 3D broadcast captured in real time in South Africa with no glitches in capture, transmission, or display.

As he did at the SID DisplaySearch Business Conference, Sony Electronics President and COO Stan Glasgow emphasized that 3D must be carefully captured, produced, and displayed in order to ensure an outstanding and unobtrusive viewing experience. He noted that Sony has been investing in professional 3D cameras and equipment, and working closely with partners such as ESPN.

Chris Fawcett, head of TV planning for Sony Electronics, noted that Sony has taken care to develop each aspect of 3D TVs, including the glasses, the synchronization with the set, and the backlight. He argued that this results in the highest quality 3D experience, with minimal image crosstalk and highest brightness. And Chief Marketing Officer Mike Fasulo emphasized Sony’s support for both national and regional retailers, in terms of product training and demonstrations, both at Sony Style and at the retailers. He noted that Sony is instituting a 2D/3D switch on shelf models, so that consumers see a 2D HD image while walking up to the set, and once they put on glasses can switch the set to 3D.

Finally, Senior Vice President for the Home Division Mike Abary noted that Sony is focused on leadership in both 3D and internet connectivity in TVs, and pointed to the end-to-end development in 3D as well as Sony’s partnership with Google, which it will call Sony Internet TV.

Best Buy and Sony’s strategies for 3D will be key factors in the rollout of 3D TV in the US market this year. As such, we are excited to announce that both Best Buy and Sony (Mike Abary) will participate in the upcoming DisplaySearch 2010 TV Ecosystem Conference being held in San Jose, California on August 18, 2010, where we can hear more about the 3D rollout.

LED supply demand, short- and long-term, is always a hot topic in the LCD TV industry, Brands are trying to aggressively grow LED-backlit LCD TV volumes, growing so fast that the LED supply chain cannot keep up. Meanwhile, issues like binning, LED yield, white LED color mixing, and the relationships between LED makers, panel makers and TV brands are affecting the smooth supply of LEDs. The LED supply is very tight right now and panel makers have successfully increased panel price premiums for LED from Q2’10. As the DisplaySearch Monthly Large-Area LCD and PDP Pricing Report shows, LED panel prices increased while CCFL panel prices decreased.

However, we forecast that the LED panel premium increase will only last until Q3’10, and the LED supply will be more in balance from the middle of Q3’10. The current tight atmosphere created many challenges for forecasting. In a recent discussion with LED makers, we also sensed that many people in the LED supply chain are worrying about the impact on LED chip prices due to the enormous capacities coming on line from now until next year. LED companies, after struggling many years with low margins and revenues from low-end products like Christmas tree lights, now see a chance to move into higher margin, higher-end products with high revenues like flat panel TVs.

The problem is that their return-on-investment calculations assume that chip demand will continue to grow and can easily absorb expanded capacity. Meanwhile, LED makers can easily fund capacity expansions, from the open capital market or from their industrial groups. LED companies have never experienced the Crystal Cycle before. But when TFT LCD goes into over-supply, it can be a nightmare for the supply chain because panel prices fall faster than expected and component makers can be vulnerable. Even components with oligopolistic supply can suffer when demand freezes.

On the other hand, the competitive environment, driven by game theory, leads LED makers to conclude that if they don’t expand, another maker will. Capacity expansion, indicated by MOCVD ordering and ramping, is accelerating, at Samsung LED, LG Innotek, Epistar, FOREPI, Nichia, Toyoda Gosei, Lexstar and others.

Component makers entering the TFT LCD industry must cope with the TFT LCD Crystal Cycle. This has happened with CCFL, TAC film, ITO, wide-view angle film, and other components. Supply of these materials was thought to be an oligopoly, and shortages were expected for a long time, but they fell into over-supply when panel demand dropped, even faster than other components because of over-expansion during the time of shortage. Is it possible that this will happen to LED?

While LED makers are quickly moving in MOCVD machines, engineers in the panel companies are trying to reduce the number of light bars used in LED TV backlights, enhancing the yield rate and luminous efficiency in the light guide system, while better binning methods and improved LED yield rates are lowering costs. Going forward, increased transmittance technology will be implemented in mass production of TFT LCD, and as LEDs luminous efficiency improves with volume production, fewer chips are required. This is a challenge to the assumption that as LED-backlit LCD TV demand grows, the number of chips demanded will grow continuously.

It is risky to claim that LED will be tight for more than one year, as everything related to TFT LCDs is dynamic . Some in the LED industry think that when white LED prices fall because of the TFT LCD industry, we will see the ramp up of LED lighting, which utilizes similar white LED technologies. Meanwhile, DisplaySearch is working on an LED supply/demand model to try to predict price swings.

We could have seen this coming… When TV makers began marketing LED-backlit LCD TVs as “LED TVs,” DisplaySearch and others recognized that this opened up the possibility for confusion, especially with totally unrelated technologies like OLED on the verge of mass-market breakthrough. As flat panel displays become widespread in TV and PC markets, buyers and marketers, as well as consumers, can find some of the new technologies confusing. With nearly 1,750 stores in the US, Target is a mainstream mass merchandiser; while not known for carrying IT products such as PCs and peripherals, Target is offering more products in this market like many mass merchants, and they carry a range of products via its website beyond what it offers in stores.

It is well recognized that, when marketing to consumers, brands and advertisers can only get across a few key points. So the use of “LED TV” and more recently “LED monitors” (LCD desktop monitors that use LED backlights to allow for thin, energy efficient form factors) was going to be a point of confusion for consumers. Such is evidenced by the recent promotion by Target.com of a 22″ widescreen “OLED” monitor.

Figure 1: From the Target Website

The acronym OLED stands for organic light emitting diode, a form of emissive display that is built using organic materials. LED stands for light emitting diode, which generally refers to inorganic semiconductor devices that emit light, now being used as backlight sources in LCDs. LEDs and OLEDs are entirely different, but unfortunately for many, they sound very alike. The OLED display market has grown rapidly over the past several quarters, but most OLED displays in the market are less than 5″ diagonal, with only a few larger OLED products in the market at this moment. The largest active matrix (AM) OLED display product is the 15″ OLED TV from LG Electronics. This 15″ OLED TV is selling in only a few markets around the world and goes for over $2,600!

DisplaySearch forecasts that >20″ AMOLED displays will enter the market over the next year, largely focused on TV applications. Desktop monitors using AMOLEDs larger than 20″ will take at least an additional year, due to technical limitations. For example, OLEDs do not do as well showing the mostly white, static backgrounds used by PC operating systems such as Windows and Mac OS, as they do showing mostly-black background content or full-moition video. Also, OLEDs have some limitations with blue materials and differential aging of colors. When OLEDs do enter the desktop monitor market, prices are expected to be closer to $2,000 than the $229 price of the LED-backlit LCD monitor advertised by Target.

When will products like an AMOLED desktop monitor actually reach the market? Are the barriers to large-scale AMOLED production surmountable? Can OLED displays catch the moving LCD target? These and other OLED questions will be addressed in the “OLED Displays and Lighting” session at the SID DisplaySearch Business Conference on May 24 in Seattle. Please join us.

Shortages of LED chips and other components (including light guide plates and reflectors) in LED backlights for large-area TFT LCD panels are causing a tight supply of LED-backlit panels for TVs. Panel makers are indicating that they will not drop prices in Q2’10, which will result in a continuing (and perhaps increasing) premium for LED-backlit TV panels 32″ and larger. While temporary (panel makers feel that supply will increase in Q3’10) this could serve to limit the adoption of LED backlights in LCD TVs and monitors in 2010. Aggressive forecasts of 50 million LED-backlit LCD TVs in 2010 are now being scaled back.

While DisplaySearch continues to analyze the market, our forecast calls for 42 million LED-backlit TV panels to ship in 2010, which suddenly seems more reasonable than panel-makers’ original plans. One of the things that we took into account in making this forecast was the challenge of ramping up LED production so quickly. We estimate that the increase in LED area production from Q1’09 to Q’10 was 32%, a huge jump. Considering that much of the increase was accounted for by a relatively small number of chip makers in Taiwan and Korea, some of which are new to mass production and are relying on equipment coming from an even smaller number of suppliers, it should not be surprising that there are some learning curve challenges.

For more detail, see the DisplaySearch Monitor and the Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, which now tracks and forecasts LCD TVs by backlight type, and for LED backlights, by edge vs. direct.

Without a major US tech conference devoted just to personal computers or IT products, many brands take liberties with the “C” in CES and showcase commercial products as well. In doing so, many fail to differentiate between consumer and commercial products, rather showing any product that promotes what they consider hot technologies. This approach often marginalizes features and trends that are truly relevant to the personal computing space. Let’s look at areas where there was too much hype and then where there was not enough emphasis.

Overused

1. 3D: Too much written about this already…. Quite naturally, the focus was on TVs, so monitor and notebook companies seemed to feel compelled to jump on the bandwagon and show 3D for gaming, watching video, etc.
2. Slate: While the industry often recycles terms and technologies, it seems that everything was being labeled or re-labeled a “slate”. From tablet PCs, which are less than 1% of the total notebook PC market, to new products like the convertible hybrid IdeaPad U1 from Lenovo (very innovative!), to e-readers such as Samsung’s new entry, “slate” seems here to stay. Apple’s January 27 announcement can’t come soon enough.
3. LED: Most monitor and PC companies promoted their forthcoming LED-backlit LCD monitors. Samsung even showed their LED backlit 46″ and 55″ digital signage products.
4. AIO: All-in-one desktop PC (AIO) portfolios are growing significantly with companies from Lenovo to MSi showing a wide variety of new offerings. Interestingly, ViewSonic noted strong adoption of their AIOs in commercial, as opposed to consumer, environments.
5. HDMI: Notebook and monitor companies were quick to point out the addition of HDMI ports on their 2010 products. Most companies stated that they did not have plans to have different connectivity solutions for consumer vs. commercial products (see DisplayPort).

Underused

1. Touch: While there was much hype (and debate) surrounding touch as a interface for AIOs, notebooks and monitors with the announcement of Windows 7, it seemed that most product pitches noted touch as an option rather than as a primary feature.
2. Monitor: Not much new in the way of PC monitors-with two exceptions:
   • Samsung indicated that in addition to expanding their notebook portfolio, they will also extend their “LapFit” displays (which have a low profile to enable them to be viewed seamlessly next to a notebook display) and begin bundling them.
   • LG’s IP displays allow 30 or more monitors to run from one host. While impressive, this solution is hardly for consumers, and was lost in the noise of CES
3. Desktop PC: Q4’09 showed stronger than expected desktop PC sales, but when people at CES said “PC” they meant notebook PC.
4. Convergence: While there were many AV and PC dual-functionality products, I did not hear “convergence” at all. Monitor brands are pushing display sizes up (Dell introduced a 27″ display), yet there are indications that some retailers are hesitant to carry monitors larger than 24″, as a way of avoiding confusion over multi-function monitors.
5. DisplayPort: While there has been significant development work on this new digital interface, and there was a press conference at CES, DP seems to have little awareness from brand and marketing managers, let alone the general public.

Major TV themes at the 2010 CES include 3D, connectivity and LED. LED is a major area of focus that could account for a large percentage of the TV market in 2010 after a modest 2009 result.

LG has no fewer than six new series of LED-based LCD TVs among their total of 11 series of LCDs, totaling 41 models that are 32″ or larger, which should account for a large portion of their lineup.

Samsung used their press conference to take the wraps off of a number of super-slim edge-lit LED TVs. The thinnest is the 9000 series, which is just 0.3″ thick (the width of a pencil) with a brushed aluminum frame and detachable touchscreen controller that will play video! Samsung also debuted the 8000, 7000 and 6500 series of LED TVs using a new industrial design and ranging from 19″ to 65″ in size.

Sharp rolled out three series of LED-backlit LCD TVs, all edge-lit, with some incorporating their newly announced Quadpixel sub-pixel structure using red, green, blue and now yellow sub-pixels. Sharp also announced that they are targeting 50% of their LCD TV sales volume in 2010 to be from LED models.

Sony launched eight series of LED backlit LCD TVs, seven edge-lit and one direct-lit with dynamic backlight control, highlighting their new Monolithic industrial design and ranging in size from 32″ to 60″, all full HD 1080p.

Toshiba spent its press conference concentrating on re-launching their feature-packed Cell LCD TV, which uses a wide array of advanced technologies: full local-dimming direct LED backlight with an incredible 512 zones for very fine gradation. Again, its product range is heavily LED biased, with seven of its 11 series being LED-backlit.

2010 is going to be a very big year for LED indeed.

At our 2008 TV Supply Chain Conference, I formulated the longer-term challenge for TV setmakers as being how to face the internet revolution-otherwise they would end up in the monitor business.

At the opening day of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, some of the press conferences revealed that choice.  Toshiba have clearly embraced the idea of the smart TV with their Cell TV: not only is it a conventional TV, but also a terabyte server that can play back to other sets around the home.  An hour earlier, Netgear showed its Stora consumer network storage device, which not only allows content sharing around the home, but also has video processing functions.

For Toshiba the TV is central; in Netgear’s view it is merely a big monitor. This to me is the big battle for TV. Such matters as LED backlighting and 3D are by comparison squabbles between set makers, but do not address the real competition to the TV industry from the coming disruption of content delivery.