The Indian government agency DGFT (Directorate General of Foreign Trade) has clamped down on low-quality mobile phones imported into India, in particular mobiles without IMEI (International Mobile Equipment Identity) numbers.

This ruling is likely to have a severe impact on the estimated 800K Chinese white brand handsets imported per month (believed to be 10-20% of Chinese white brand handsets).

Fledging domestic brands like Spice, Onida and Usha were finding it very difficult to combat the influx of non-regulated cheap imports, and major players like Nokia, Samsung, and Sony joined the chorus for this ban. Some of these phones are copies of the famous models of leading brands with Nokia’s N91 being the favorite target.

It is also significant that the ban was supported by counter-intelligence agencies, as it was found that many remote-controlled terror acts were actually triggered through these cheap phones without IMEI, making it virtually impossible for the security agencies to track the source.

However this ban may fuel the conflict between China and India in the next round of WTO discussions, where China will surely raise the issue as a case of unfair trade rules.

An interesting point is that China had successfully lobbied to cancel a similar ban against low-quality Chinese toys, noting that only China was targeted. But this time may be different, as mobile phones are not toys, and it seems that this ban could not be more encompassing, since it does not mention any countries and is aimed at notorious traders with scant respect for quality, health hazards, tax evasion and national security.

This ban is playing out in the context of a changing Indian mobile phone market; in the last quarter, Nokia India overtook China as the largest production hub for the Indian market, creating jobs and commerce in India. Also, Russian cellular operator MTS began offering lifetime free talk time within the network for Rs 480 (approximately $10), taking competition to dizzying heights.

In India, the mobile has become the new toy for a growing segment of the population. Children graduate directly from playing with toys to handling cheap mobiles with high-end features. It rightly proves that boys never grow up: only the toys change.

On June 16, the second largest LCD manufacturer issued a press release called “LG Display to Nurture its Thin-Film Solar Cell Business as a Future Growth Driver.” The press release was quickly picked up by FPD and PV newsletters, as well as many major business publications, making it big news. Even so, none of the articles, including the original press release, offer many specifics on the company’s photovoltaic (PV) strategy.

Frankly, our channel checks turned up only slightly more hard information. Why? Because it seems that although LGD has decided to officially kick off a PV development program with some fanfare, it has yet to finalize many of the details.

Here is what we did hear:

• The thin film technology will be a-Si. Since LGD suggested in the press release it plans to increase conversion efficiency to 12%, it is fair to assume they also plan to develop tandem or triple junction architectures.
• The glass size should be a Gen 5 equivalent.
• Initial capacity will probably be around 20 MW.

However, manufacturing equipment reportedly has yet to be ordered, and the potential vendor selection includes both domestic and foreign firms. Equipment delivery dates and long term expansion plans are still all on the drawing board.

The LGD program is apparently separate from the previously announced LG Electronics plan to build out over 200 MW of crystalline silicon cell capacity at its now shut-down A1 PDP factory.

More details about LGD’s plans and a summary of the other top-five LCD companies’ plans are available in an article posted on the Presentations, Talks and Articles page on our website.

We saw touch application as a hot topic in Computex last week. Windows 7 supports multi-touch, so lots of IT field players have joined or planned to step into touch. However, the longer term influence to the industry will extend beyond Windows 7 release.

Touch is being used for two distinct kinds of business. One is portable consumer electronics such as mobile phone, PND or portable game console, and the other one is vertical and commercial applications ranging from ATMs to POS to touch-enabled electronic white boards. IT applications are rare and not so critical. But now with Windows 7 touch support, touch will extend to notebook PCs and desktop monitors, and it brings a great opportunity to Taiwan, which has been the most competitive region in IT OEM/ODM manufacturing.

We saw many mini-notes, notebooks and PCs with Windows 7 installed for users to try multi-touch on the track pad or panel. The Acer Timeline series CULV notebook has a driver to support multi-touch with Vista on the track pad.

Resistive, projected capacitive, infrared and acoustic were prominent at Computex, but optical imaging similar to the NextWindow solution has become more visible. Many makers presented large-area modules for vertical, commercial or IT applications.

In Hall 3, we saw Nlighten demonstrating successfully adoption of optical imaging for multi-touch on sizes from 32″ to 50″. The applications are interactive advertising, multimedia education title, information kiosk, painting and so on. We saw a simulation of a chemical experiment running in the Windows environment on a TV-sized screen. Large touch screens are conventionally used for education and training in classrooms or meeting rooms, but it could be in our home living room or study room in the future. Consumers still won’t touch their TV while watching programs, but it will be convenient to use touch to if their TV-sized display is used for children’s education or a widget channel for information through the internet.

IC suppliers had coverage for touch panels, touch pads and touch buttons. It seemed many IC suppliers would like to take advantage of touch fever to promote themselves. Touch buttons cannot necessarily replace physical switches, but touch panels and touch pads are quite promising for IT products. ELAN, who was located in a small booth of Hall 1, had some surprises. Besides a controller IC smaller than 5 × 5 mm to be used for mobile phones and notebook PCs, they presented some new ideas. We saw some interesting remote controllers. One of them has two sides-a normal keypad design on one side and a track pad on the other-to be used for controlling either internet TV or a Windows PC. Also, there’s a remote controller which has a small screen with other keypads; the screen can change its user interface for different media sources.

What we felt from Computex is that the boundary between IT and CE has been disappearing in our lives, and touch applications seem to be extending to more consumer-oriented products besides its vertical uses. In our new Touch Panel Market Analysis, we found the touch penetration in IT product (notebook PC and desktop PC) was still very low in 2008; however, we forecast decent growth of touch in these applications in the next several years.

Despite the low turnout at SID last week, there was still a lot of interest in touch technology. Many companies showed off their latest touch products, and there were even two new touch-related companies present: Pacinian and Vissumo. And as a cap to a touch-filled week, Palm launched its long-awaited Pre smart phone. Once upon a time, in an iPhone-less market a long, long time ago, Palm actually planted the seeds of the current touch-enabled smartphone revolution with its then ground-breaking PDA products.

But in another city at another conference, touch technology was oddly missing from one company’s key announcement. The city was Los Angeles, the conference was E3, and the company was Sony, which debuted its new PSPgo portable game player. While the PSPgo sports many exciting features, it has one glaring flaw: no touch input. The omission seems particularly risky when key rival gaming products-including the Nintendo DS, Apple iPod touch, Apple iPhone 3G, and now Plam Pre-all include touch displays. At a time when more portable electronics products and gaming software utilize touch input, one has to ask if Sony is out of touch with the PSPgo. DisplaySearch’s new Touch Panel Market Analysis, for example, forecasts that the number of touch-enabled handheld game devices, portable media players and mobile phones will soar to 82 million, 64 million and 897 million units, respectively, by 2015.

Figure: Sony PSPgo

Source: Sony

Critics are also suggesting that Sony’s pricing is out of touch. When it launches on October 1, the PSPgo will retail for $250, currently $80 more than the touch-enabled Nintendo DS, whose lower display includes a resistive touch panel. Palm’s Pre sells for just $200. The iPod touch sells for as little as $229, while an entry level iPhone 3G will soon be available for just $99 given Apple’s recent announcement at its developer conference. To be fair in comparison, the Pre and iPhone prices require mobile phone servicer contracts. On the upside, consumers with Apple products and now the Pre have access to app stores where they can download thousands of games and other software.

Apple in particular has emerged as a key competitor for portable gaming. The company’s iTunes-driven app store features over 25,000 titles, with about 25% of those titles being games. Many of those games, however, fall into the “casual gaming” category and fall short of more sophisticated offerings available on dedicated game devices like the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP. Those devices currently have an advantage in processing power available for gaming software. That lead, however, will diminish with Apple’s new iPhone 3G, which features a faster processor than its predecessor.

Battling over portable gaming would not be the first time Apple and Sony have clashed in the portable electronics market. Apple beat out Sony for dominance of the digital music market. At the time, Sony made a critical mistake by embracing its proprietary ATRAC format instead of the popular MP3 format. Sony had a similar problem with the ill-fated UMD format used in the original PSP. With the PSPgo, Sony may once again be out of touch with the market.

Soon after exchanging hellos with people I know at the Society for Information Display (SID) Symposium this week, the question was voiced, “Where is Sony?” Sony was not the only company mentioned but it was the most frequent one.

Indeed, this year’s exhibition was remarkable more for what wasn’t there than for what was. Part of this sensation can be explained by economics and the flu. On the other hand, I cannot help thinking that several Asian panel makers are more focused on TV demand in China than on impressing companies in the US. In addition, I cannot help thinking that some companies have turned inwards. We hear rumors that top technologists at Samsung have been assigned to OLED projects in the new mobile display subsidiary. Sharp remains as tight-lipped as ever, and Sony is busy reorganizing. All this suggests that we may see a new crop of display products in the next year or two.

It just drives us display watchers crazy not to know. It’s like being a kid and wondering if Christmas will ever come…

Many TFT LCD companies we have spoken to recently indicate that they are facing a 10-15% - and in some cases more than 20% - gap between their demand for glass substrates and what their glass suppliers will support. Many TFT LCD suppliers intended to increase capacity utilization due to strong demand and increasing panel prices, but failed to do so because they cannot get enough glass substrate. Suppliers report that all substrate sizes from Gen 6 to Gen 8 have more or less the same amount of shortage. Smaller panel makers are having greater difficulties because glass makers are more supportive of large customers.

The main reason for this situation is the dramatic stop of glass melting tanks in Q4′08. Several glass makers shut down half of their capacity due to the drop in demand and the collapse of panel makers’ capacity utilization. Melting tanks are easy to shut down but take more than two months to re-ignite and ramp up. In addition, glass makers are taking a cautious approach to restoring capacity due to the slow pace of economic recovery, even while TFT LCD production has increased rapidly. The DisplaySearch Q1′09 Quarterly LCD Glass Substrate Report forecasts that glass substrate will remain tight throughout 2009.

TFT LCD panel prices have been rebounding since February, due to the need to refill channel inventories, strong TV demand from China and LCD module component shortages caused by cutbacks in the supply chain. However, there is some concern about the market in 2H’09 as supply increases amid doubts as to whether demand can continue. In May, many of our contacts expressed concerns about the possibility of oversupply and price drops again in Q3′09. Several people commented that the 2008 crash was in July and worried that 2009 will repeat history.

The glass shortage is likely to erase these concerns. The shortage is more serious than most assumed a couple of months ago, and has provided a reason for panel makers to raise prices. With glass makers not bringing back capacity rapidly enough to ease the shortage, many now believe that panel makers can continue to raise prices throughout the year.

In the history of TFT LCD crystal cycles, we have seen many periods of component shortage, which influences the cycle and panel prices. Such shortages have not lasted for long due to the flexibility of component production. Will glass substrates be the exception? Even if demand declines in Q3′09, will glass shortages continue to limit panel supply and push panel prices up?

At the E3 Expo this week, Microsoft unveiled their Natal Project, an add-on kit for the Xbox 360 that includes a camera on the TV set top to capture user gestures or action. This makes us think of the Nintendo Wii controller, which uses a CMOS image sensor from PixArt Imaging for action capturing. The difference is Xbox does not need any controller; your body is the controller. To make this amazing feature possible, more powerful image calculating and comparison is critical.

Beyond taking pictures, CMOS (and CCD) cameras now have greater capabilities in detection. We have seen NextWindow’s solution used in the HP TouchSmart all-in-one PC, which uses infrared interruption to detect and calculate touching action and position. Optical imaging is more flexible for larger displays than conventional resistive or capacitive touch technologies.

For mobile phones, mini-notes, notebook PCs and desktop monitors, the distance between user and the display is very short; they can use a finger, stylus pen, mouse point, keyboard or other input device to interact with the system. This scenario does not work with TV, as users watch TV from a longer distance. In addition, intensive interaction may be needed in gaming, but not while watching broadcasting.

Owing to the context and scenario, we probably won’t see any touch solution applied on the TV display unless this TV is used for other purposes such as education, training or public display. However, we still can expect there will be some changes in interaction with TVs. Bluetooth or Zigbee could replace the remote control infrared which has directional limitations. Or, it’s reasonable to embed a small-sized panel with menu-driven interface like an iPod to reduce the number of buttons and controls. And of course image sensors like those used in Natal Project will be applied instead of touch, too, offering more natural interaction and, perhaps, users won’t be such coach potatoes any more.

Figure: Natal Project
Source: Microsoft

At SID in 2001, Sony showed a 13″ OLED panel and even issued a press release stating that the panel would be in a notebook PC in 2002. For many reasons, that did not occur. At CES in January, a small company (OQO) showed a 5″ OLED in a slider-style PC from Samsung SDI (now Samsung Mobile Display), and they were expecting to be shipping their product now. Unfortunately, OQO is facing serious financial troubles and is not able to bring the product to market, even though the display is ready.

Here we are at SID 2009, and Samsung Mobile Display is showing some more OLED products, many more than they showed at CES. The photo shows a 14.1″ 960 × 540 OLED TV product. Samsung stated that the yields are good, and improving, which means that manufacturing costs are coming down.

Figure: 14.1″ 960 × 540 OLED TV

 The panel size is large enough for notebook PC product, and if they can increase the resolution to 1366 × 768, then the resolution will be sufficient for the notebook PC market. Could we finally see an OLED panel shipping in a notebook PC product? Don’t be too surprised if you see a notebook PC with an OLED panel on a store shelf some time in the next 12 months.

It is hard to believe that only five years ago, at SID International Symposium 2004, consumer LCD TV sets represented new technology. By this year’s symposium, almost all TV sets sold in developed nations were LCD units. Most TV sets selling in China are LCD units, already. Some people wrongly assume such success means LCD technology is ready for replacement by newer flat panel technology. There are certainly many interesting alternative display technologies demonstrated or described at the symposium, but none of them have the momentum of a $100 billion supply chain expanding 25% a year.

Two demonstrations at SID this week underscore this point. Engineers from Sharp’s Research and Development Group are showing a 60″ 1080p TFT LCD module using five primary colors. This is significant because they prove it possible to display 99% or more of all the surface colors found in real life. No other display technology has ever delivered such realism. Most professional monitors deliver 88% or less. In addition, they prove it is possible to preserve such realistic color when the panel is viewed off axis. Instead of conventional red, green, blue (RGB) stripes on the color filter, they added cyan, yellow and a second red stripe to create a RCGRBY six-stripe sub-pixel pattern. This means there are more than 65 thousand ways to create each color. In a conventional LCD there is only one way to create a given color, so designers must accept whatever off-axis color shift results. Not so with a five-color design, the Sharp team discovered how to minimize off-axis color shift for each color and developed a decoding algorithm that converts standard RGB image data into optimal color codes for their system.

This is indicates that accurate color reproduction can come from a simple change to the color filter. Conventional, low-cost backlights and other components can be used. Digital cameras capture far many more colors than any TV or monitor can display today and professional cameras capture even more. We may soon be able to see life-like images at no additional cost.

The potential application of five-primary systems to handheld products may be more significant. One of the barriers to implementing field-sequential color LCD as an alternative to color-filter designs has been color break-up people can see if the field rate is to slow. Using more than three primary colors tricks the eye into perceiving faster field switching, so slower liquid crystal modes may be possible. The implication is that panel makers could supply high-resolution, full-color, full-video displays using only 25% of the power required today. Handset or e-book designers could increase battery life and decrease product weight with such displays.

Samsung showed it was possible to strobe conventional CCFL backlights so fast that they could send video signals as light pulses. That should put an end to the worry that low-cost backlights were not fast enough for field sequential LCD. The Samsung demo shows that about 1Mbps is possible, more than enough to transmit coupon data or promotional URL to someone’s handset as they look at an advertisement. Alternatively, that is plenty of bandwidth to send map data to someone’s handset while they are looking at a kiosk or directory display in a train station.

All this-and more-is possible with the existing TFT LCD supply chain. In the next five years, we will see the next generation of LCD technology, everywhere.

Blogging Live from SID Display Week!

Making its public debut at SID, Spokane-based Pacinian (Booth 437) is demonstrating its new TactileGlass solutions for adding haptics to touch panels and touch pads. Haptics, sometimes called force feedback, involves the addition of physical sensations corresponding to touch. Several studies have shown that haptics increase both accuracy of and satisfaction in touch input.

Pacinian’s solution utilizes a chip set in conjunction with a thin active layer that produces the physical sensations including more soft and subtle sensations than what is possible with more widely available vibration-based haptics solutions. The active layer is typically only 0.25 mm to 1.0 mm in thickness, works with any touch sensor technology, and has already been scaled up to 20″ diagonal. Other advantages include fast response times, very low power consumption and a solid state design lacking any moving parts that can wear out. The TactileGlass name, however, is a bit of a misnomer since Pacinian’s solution will also work on non-glass surfaces.

Pacinian currently has five employees and has so far been funded through friends and family. The company also has a key deal with an undisclosed Fortune 100 company to provide haptics for a touch-based keyboard. Pacinian will likely attract many other customers quickly given the fast growth of the touch market. According to our newest report on Touch Panel Market Analysis, the shipments of touch panels, like touch sensors used with displays, will soar from 483 million in 2009 to 1.4 billion in 2015. Those figures correspond to a CAGR of 16.9%, a rate over 3 times faster than unit growth for the overall display industry. Moreover, Pacinian can also serve the touch pad market, i.e., touch sensors used without displays (the most common touch pad application is currently the notebook PC).